MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE RELIABILITY OF MIXED CARGO TRANSPORTATION UNDER DYNAMIC CHANGE OF CONDITIONS

Topicality. Military threats determined the significant pace of changes in risks mixed cargoes transportation and proved need for new methods ensuring reliability transportation. First all, there was problem assessing levels along individual routes modeling a possible change with choice safer options ways A particularly important function such model, due to rapid risks, is possibility its practical application real-time conditions.Aim tasks. The purpose work develop mathematical model cargo conditions dynamic increase process, analyze alternative transportation, identify opportunities changing route even process Achieving goal study made it necessary set solve following tasks: implement analyzing proposing real time; prove capabilities developed on example specific enterprises; ensure forecasting next stages; optimizing multi-purpose tasks reliability, minimize cost time transportation; stratify according level probability.
 Materials methods. Various general special knowledge were used work: method quantitative qualitative comparison stratification depending at vector analysis take into account probability risk each stage induction deduction consider as reciprocal probability; task fragmentation allows include probable stages different transport routes; formalization formation using water risks.
 Research results. options, during To this, developed: capable life developed; proven possibilities ensured; minimizing has been implemented; by carried out.
 Conclusion. Using activities enterprises that transported their products through ports Sea Azov analyzed. Due decrease Kerch Strait, are proposed, use "river-sea" vessels certain stages. Approbation increasing efficiency logistics effectiveness. enterprise activity indicated an implicit advantage particular, relation identifying reducing warehouse stocks saving working capital same time. presented results research make proper cargoes, routes.